Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9c9…646c world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$3,732 (-14%) realized −$3,772 · open −$194
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate54%15W / 13L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$914per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$164
14 days−$137
30 days−$582
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 95% −$4,132
other 4% +$162
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -16.5% -24.4% 50% 25% -12.1%
≤30d 10 -9.9% -18.5% 60% 20% -15.3%
≤90d 18 -16.4% -24.4% 50% 22% -34.0%
all 28 -0.3% -9.8% 54% 36% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 36% -23.0%
10% -18.5% 18% -30.4%
15% -26.3% 14% -37.1%
20% -33.6% 11% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$897) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$164 vs −$519 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$3,772
Unrealized−$194
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses15 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage118d
Avg bet$914
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 77¢ 23¢ $278 $84 −$194 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1,101 −$48 -4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $600 −$556 -93%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $232 +$48 +21%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $3,778 +$391 +10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $527 +$27 +5%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? May 31 $303 +$18 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $362 +$20 +6%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 27 $1,330 −$468 -35%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 26 $300 −$88 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $516 +$73 +14%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? May 11 $15 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $340 −$249 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 01 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $7,405 −$4,462 -60%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? Mar 29 $865 +$144 +17%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 29 $845 +$26 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 29 $897 −$69 -8%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026? Mar 08 $63 −$47 -75%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? Mar 08 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $504 +$96 +19%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 03 $3,208 −$58 -2%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 01 $9 +$6 +76%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $270 +$720 +267%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $478 +$183 +38%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $99 −$87 -88%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $1,000 +$686 +69%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 21 $130 +$20 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $278 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $277 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $259 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $259 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $265 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $221 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $44 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $280 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? SELL Yes 46¢ $280 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $232 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 16¢ $600 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $671 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $161 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $821 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $821 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 93¢ $475 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 93¢ $192 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 93¢ $96 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 93¢ $765 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 89¢ $730 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 60¢ $732 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 57¢ $700 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 70¢ $693 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 60¢ $433 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 60¢ $137 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 64¢ $576 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 60¢ $24 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 62¢ $62 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 62¢ $496 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.51 · official $83.51 (match) · 255 history records