Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:34:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D9 0xd9c9…7c08 other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$342 (-4%) realized −$299 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate67%22W / 11L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$1,795now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$283
14 days−$1,028
30 days−$771
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$686
other 32% +$268
finance 6% +$51
politics 1% +$9
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +18.5% +7.2% 100% 100% +11.9%
≤30d 25 -12.8% -21.1% 64% 44% -20.4%
≤90d 33 -7.7% -16.5% 67% 52% -13.4%
all 33 -7.7% -16.5% 67% 52% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 52% -13.4%
10% -24.5% 27% -21.7%
15% -31.8% 9% -29.2%
20% -38.5% 6% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$131 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$1,795
Realized−$299
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses22 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)33 / 45
History coverage69d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 76¢ 78¢ $401 $410 +$9 (+2%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $300 $318 +$18 (+6%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 52¢ $289 $310 +$21 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $300 $266 −$34 (-11%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $200 $128 −$72 (-36%)
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $101 $97 −$4 (-4%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 86¢ 86¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 86¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 24 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $977 +$244 +25%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $102 +$22 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +13%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +13%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 $0 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $901 +$86 +10%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $744 −$724 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $260 −$250 -96%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 14 $417 −$413 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $750 −$10 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Jun 14 $166 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $700 +$36 +5%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 -33%
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Jun 03 $1 $0 -30%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $235 +$58 +25%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $489 +$115 +24%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $600 +$51 +8%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $360 +$319 +89%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 01 $100 +$48 +48%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? May 01 $50 +$8 +17%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 01 $270 +$83 +31%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? May 01 $50 +$28 +56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 30 $50 +$12 +24%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Apr 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $292 1h
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 86¢ $43 19h
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 79¢ $101 3d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 3d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 3d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 5d
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 5d
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 5d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 83¢ $302 5d
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 75¢ $302 5d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $260 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $260 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 18¢ $117 13d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $740 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $260 13d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? SELL Yes 74¢ $97 13d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $165 13d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 19d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $655 19d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 19d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $976 24d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1 24d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $400 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $400 24d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 24d
Iran nuclear test before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $224 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,795.46 · official $1,795.46 (match) · 124 history records