Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:10:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9cb…1c10 crypto 517 markets active 9h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$843 (+6%) realized +$843 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%207W / 310L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$400
14 days−$491
30 days−$491
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$233
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -28.4% -35.2% 41% 40% -14.3%
≤30d 222 -23.9% -31.1% 40% 39% -13.9%
≤90d 517 -5.4% -14.4% 40% 39% -7.7%
all 517 -5.4% -14.4% 40% 39% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 39% -7.7%
10% -22.6% 38% -16.5%
15% -30.0% 30% -24.6%
20% -36.9% 28% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$16 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$843
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses207 / 310
Open positions0
Markets (closed)517 / 517
History coverage86d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 517 Trades
no open positions (108 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $240 +$60 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $160 +$40 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $85 −$82 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $53 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$20 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$44 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$18 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $68 +$32 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $240 +$60 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$9 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $83 +$97 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $162 +$38 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $68 +$18 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $63 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $45 −$32 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $68 +$32 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $79 +$21 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $113 +$38 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $115 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $110 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $20 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $72 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $29 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $40 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1677 history records