Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9d0…542c other 251 markets active 3h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$813 (+69%) realized +$832 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate23%51W / 175L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day66.0pace
Kalshi-fit1%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$52
14 days−$139
30 days+$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$491
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +73.8% +57.3% 37% 37% -43.2%
≤30d 158 -0.8% -10.2% 20% 19% +10.6%
≤90d 226 +37.1% +24.0% 23% 22% +29.5%
all 226 +37.1% +24.0% 23% 22% +29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.0% 22% +29.5%
10% ← realistic here +12.1% 21% +17.1%
15% +1.3% 20% +5.8%
20% -8.6% 19% -4.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +79% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$3 · ×6.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$832
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses51 / 175
Open positions25
Markets (closed)226 / 251
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day66.0
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit1%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 28¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+480%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-52%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+67%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-79%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-69%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-81%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $4 +$2 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $7 +$7 +106%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $60 −$57 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $13 +$11 +83%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $1 $0 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $6 +$14 +238%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $6 +$4 +73%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $4 +$6 +138%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $3 +$2 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $2 +$3 +169%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $4 +$5 +155%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $6 −$2 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $35 −$4 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $8 −$4 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $46 −$33 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 18 $34 +$26 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 18 $2 +$12 +607%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 9h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.21 · official $32.22 (match) · 3500 history records