Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:12:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D9 0xd9d8…b4fb crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,422 (+200%) realized +$11,422 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +49% what you keep after slip
Net edge+49%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate68%21W / 10L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$497
7 days+$497
14 days+$10,644
30 days+$10,990
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$11,187
world 8% −$171
other 2% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+61.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +13.6% +2.7% 72% 67% +3.1%
≤30d 31 +78.9% +61.9% 68% 65% +168.6%
≤90d 31 +78.9% +61.9% 68% 65% +168.6%
all 31 +78.9% +61.9% 68% 65% +168.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +61.9% 65% +168.6%
10% +46.4% 58% +142.9%
15% +32.2% 45% +119.4%
20% +19.3% 35% +97.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +197% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +79% · $-wt +197% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +142% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$583 vs −$124 · ×4.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.84 per $1 lost it wins $9.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11,422
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses21 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage16d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $288 −$173 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $77 +$27 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $532 −$509 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $292 +$292 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $200 +$95 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $567 +$406 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $410 +$93 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $436 +$61 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $213 +$224 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $73 +$140 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$24 +46%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $230 −$179 -78%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $220 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 01 $501 +$10,009 +1998%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 01 $434 +$138 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 31 $208 +$223 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 31 $311 −$246 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 31 $104 +$118 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 31 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 31 $156 +$190 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 31 $118 +$66 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 30 $72 +$47 +66%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $25 +$48 +187%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $24 −$23 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $220 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records