Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:09:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D9 0xd9d9…6f83 other 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate14%13W / 83L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$12
politics 22% −$4
sports 5% −$15
world 4% $0
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -7.8% -16.6% 15% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 96 -2.7% -11.9% 14% 10% -9.7%
all 96 -2.7% -11.9% 14% 10% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 10% -9.7%
10% -20.4% 10% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 8% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses13 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)96 / 98
History coverage87d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $123 $123 +$0 (+0%)
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $43 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? Jun 05 $104 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $220 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $224 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $348 $0 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $393 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $381 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $186 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $195 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $191 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $736 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $186 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $204 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $202 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $190 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $1,533 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $207 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 27 $187 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $204 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $200 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $578 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $197 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $380 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $205 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $193 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $201 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 14 $191 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $195 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $205 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $208 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $383 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $197 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $412 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $203 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $194 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 10 $209 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $194 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $123 3d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 4d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 5d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 11d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 11d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $37 13d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $37 13d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $43 13d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $43 13d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 21d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 22d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 23d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 23d
Will Solana reach $110 in May? BUY No 100¢ $45 23d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $30 24d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $30 24d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 27d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 27d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $40 28d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 28d
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $10 29d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $34 29d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $34 30d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 30d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $104 31d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $204 33d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $204 34d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $189 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.01 · official $157.01 (match) · 265 history records