Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:26:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9dd…9a89 crypto 387 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,098 (-14%) realized −$1,654 · open −$444
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate24%94W / 290L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$1,027
14 days+$1,027
30 days+$878
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$254
other 22% −$1,274
world 6% −$275
politics 3% −$184
weather 2% −$140
sports 1% +$84
economics 0% −$41
finance 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +152.7% +128.6% 60% 60% +107.3%
≤30d 9 +40.4% +27.0% 33% 33% +74.6%
≤90d 19 -12.9% -21.2% 26% 26% +56.5%
all 384 -28.4% -35.2% 24% 21% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.2% 21% -19.6%
10% -41.4% 18% -27.3%
15% -47.1% 16% -34.3%
20% -52.3% 14% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +73% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$18 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$1,654
Unrealized−$444
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses94 / 290
Open positions3
Markets (closed)384 / 387
History coverage158d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 384 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $170 $6 −$164 (-97%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? No 14¢ 0¢ $87 $2 −$84 (-97%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? No 7¢ 0¢ $197 $1 −$195 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $105 +$160 +152%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $130 −$122 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $219 +$172 +79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $211 −$171 -81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $138 +$988 +714%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $18 −$17 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $110 −$103 -94%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $10 −$8 -84%
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 23? Apr 22 $5 $0 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $84 −$71 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 12 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 23 $68 +$61 +89%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 21 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 21 $10 $0 +2%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 21 $10 −$3 -27%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 21 $22 −$9 -43%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 21 $32 −$7 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 20 $6 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 20 $6 +$3 +55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 20? Mar 20 $10 +$6 +63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 20? Mar 20 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 20 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $8 +$1 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 18? Mar 18 $1 $0 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 18? Mar 18 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 16? Mar 18 $42 −$31 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? SELL Up 60¢ $266 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY No 14¢ $92 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 22¢ $105 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 3¢ $5 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 8¢ $24 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 8¢ $0 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 8¢ $38 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 8¢ $0 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 8¢ $0 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 8¢ $0 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 8¢ $0 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 8¢ $0 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 8¢ $0 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 8¢ $0 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 8¢ $0 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 8¢ $0 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 8¢ $0 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 8¢ $0 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 8¢ $0 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 8¢ $0 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 8¢ $0 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 8¢ $17 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 8¢ $0 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 8¢ $0 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 8¢ $0 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 8¢ $0 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 8¢ $0 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 8¢ $0 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.35 · official $9.35 (match) · 1646 history records