Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:15:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9e6…902e other 6 markets active 8h ago coverage 40d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$984 (-7%) realized −$172 · open −$812
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,321per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$10,476now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$1,325
sports 3% +$289
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +31.4% +18.9% 50% 50% +5.8%
≤90d 4 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 50% -18.2%
all 4 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 50% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 50% -18.2%
10% -22.5% 25% -26.0%
15% -30.0% 25% -33.2%
20% -36.8% 25% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
15.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$299 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$10,476
Realized−$172
Unrealized−$812
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage40d
Avg bet$2,321
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5,888 $5,376 −$512 (-9%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5,400 $5,100 −$300 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $411 +$289 +70%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $894 −$67 -8%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $516 +$83 +16%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $537 −$530 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2,432 8h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5,561 8h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $701 15d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $912 15d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $827 15d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,572 34d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 34d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 34d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 34d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 34d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 34d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 34d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 34d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 34d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,475.90 · official $10,475.90 (match) · 136 history records