Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9ea…706c sports 236 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,674 (-13%) realized −$1,716 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%84W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$344now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$265
7 days+$246
14 days+$231
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$1,611
crypto 8% −$145
other 1% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +12.8% +2.1% 54% 46% +8.2%
≤30d 37 -1.2% -10.6% 41% 38% -13.3%
≤90d 131 -17.5% -25.4% 36% 35% -26.8%
all 234 -17.2% -25.1% 36% 35% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 35% -22.6%
10% -32.3% 35% -30.0%
15% -38.8% 32% -36.8%
20% -44.8% 30% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$46 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$344
Realized−$1,716
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses84 / 150
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions2
Markets (closed)234 / 236
History coverage123d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Virtus.pro 64¢ 76¢ $259 $306 +$47 (+18%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $43 $38 −$5 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $5 $0 +5%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $146 +$153 +105%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS Jun 27 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $139 +$210 +152%
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS Jun 27 $50 −$49 -97%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 27 $130 −$130 -100%
Game Handicap: GL (-2.5) vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (+2.5) Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International Nor Jun 26 $120 +$207 +172%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $237 +$72 +30%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $85 +$51 +60%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $60 −$59 -98%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $9 −$9 -97%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $20 +$49 +242%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $84 −$82 -99%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $41 +$43 +105%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $16 +$26 +160%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $18 −$2 -12%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $33 −$32 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $34 −$33 -97%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 13 $13 −$12 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $8 −$7 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $24 −$23 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $14 −$14 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $6 +$9 +156%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $157 −$154 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $47 +$111 +234%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) Jun 06 $41 −$41 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier Jun 06 $29 −$29 -100%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division P Jun 06 $70 −$70 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Jun 06 $28 −$28 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $24 +$23 +97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $11 +$13 +114%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $4 +$7 +162%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $42 +$85 +203%
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs May 28 $37 −$37 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner May 28 $42 −$42 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $78 −$78 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $71 −$71 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $74 −$74 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $56 +$85 +152%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $106 +$64 +60%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 27 $45 −$45 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 64¢ $262 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 95¢ $5 6h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 48¢ $146 25h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS BUY LOS 41¢ $204 26h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 100¢ $349 26h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 39¢ $139 27h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS BUY LOS 9¢ $50 27h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 31h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $34 31h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY D family 29¢ $8 31h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY D family 29¢ $1 32h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY D family 29¢ $8 32h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY D family 29¢ $58 32h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY D family 29¢ $55 32h
Game Handicap: GL (-2.5) vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (+2.5) BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 25¢ $51 37h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International Nor SELL 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 100¢ $328 37h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International Nor BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 36¢ $120 41h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $208 41h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 48¢ $101 43h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $101 43h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 64¢ $136 44h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 100¢ $136 44h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 62¢ $85 47h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY MOUZ 44¢ $60 2d
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY Enjoy 12¢ $9 2d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL LOS 100¢ $70 2d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY LOS 29¢ $20 2d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY Top Esports Challenger 7¢ $15 13d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 55¢ $84 14d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & SELL LOS 100¢ $83 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $344.33 · official $344.33 (match) · 519 history records