Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:49:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9ed…b0b8 other 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,220 (-2%) realized −$1,221 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate15%12W / 70L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$641per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$839now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$13
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$1,001
politics 36% −$25
sports 7% −$55
economics 3% −$1
world 2% −$111
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 23 +1.3% -8.3% 17% 9% -9.6%
≤90d 82 -1.2% -10.7% 15% 9% -11.6%
all 82 -1.2% -10.7% 15% 9% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 9% -11.6%
10% -19.2% 9% -20.0%
15% -27.0% 7% -27.8%
20% -34.2% 6% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$886) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$20 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$839
Realized−$1,221
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses12 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)82 / 84
History coverage83d
Avg bet$641
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $541 $542 +$1 (+0%)
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $297 $297 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $210 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $898 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,664 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $720 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $793 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $987 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,427 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $929 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 04 $364 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $619 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $866 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $731 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $801 −$1 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals May 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 25 $23 +$19 +83%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $38 +$19 +50%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-05-02? May 08 $965 −$965 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? May 01 $158 $0 +0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $457 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con May 01 $168 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 01 $189 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $299 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $367 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $214 $0 -0%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,582 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $998 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $357 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $738 $0 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $32 +$60 +188%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,783 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $780 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 14 $796 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $576 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $297 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $209 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $210 5h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $541 22h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $740 3d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $741 3d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $896 5d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $898 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $862 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $863 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $851 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $852 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $719 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $720 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $791 11d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $793 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $986 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $987 11d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $799 12d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $801 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $732 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $734 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $928 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $929 13d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $513 14d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $514 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $618 17d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $619 18d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $618 20d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $619 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $838.96 · official $838.96 (match) · 218 history records