Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9ed…66fc crypto 41 markets active 4d ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$122 (-16%) realized −$122 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$162
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -19.1% -26.8% 36% 18% -37.0%
≤30d 41 -21.8% -29.2% 39% 24% -32.3%
≤90d 41 -21.8% -29.2% 39% 24% -32.3%
all 41 -21.8% -29.2% 39% 24% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 24% -32.3%
10% -36.0% 22% -38.8%
15% -42.2% 15% -44.7%
20% -47.9% 12% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage25d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $59 −$21 -35%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$5 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +60%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $12 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 26 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on May 26? May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 26 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 26 $49 −$25 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 26 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 26 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 25 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 25 $26 −$16 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 19 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 19 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 19 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 19 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 19 $21 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 19 $12 −$5 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 19 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 19 $44 +$13 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 19 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 19 $33 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 19 $33 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 19 $41 −$11 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 19 $21 +$17 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 19 $20 −$7 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 19 $26 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 19 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 19 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 19 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 19 $52 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 19 $83 −$39 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.42 · official $28.42 (match) · 185 history records