Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:29:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9ee…037c other 251 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%16W / 235L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$29
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$44
sports 28% −$27
politics 8% −$3
culture 5% −$5
crypto 5% −$3
economics 5% −$5
world 4% −$4
tech 1% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 251 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses16 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)251 / 251
History coverage134d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 251 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $597 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $335 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $392 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $158 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $385 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $299 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $392 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $454 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $542 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $296 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $413 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $236 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $134 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $220 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $159 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $481 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $224 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $244 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $239 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $590 −$2 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $455 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $802 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $298 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $65 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $480 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $207 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $150 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $321 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $454 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $731 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $993 −$1 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 01 $126 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $561 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 1h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 2h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $61 4h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 6h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $61 7h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 8h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $61 10h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 12h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 19h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 20h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $61 26h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $61 27h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 35h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 36h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 41h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 43h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $3 43h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 44h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $62 46h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $62 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $62 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 3d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 3d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 3d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $62 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1364 history records