Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:55:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D9 0xd9ee…81ec other 145 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$75 (+0%) realized +$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate15%22W / 122L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$11
politics 36% −$10
sports 10% +$95
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 80 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 144 +2.0% -7.7% 15% 9% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 9% -9.2%
10% -16.6% 8% -17.9%
15% -24.6% 6% -25.9%
20% -32.0% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×8.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses22 / 122
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage136d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $163 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $293 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $278 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $128 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $187 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $159 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $306 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $324 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $141 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $149 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $178 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $153 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $180 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $189 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $365 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $165 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $182 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $173 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $130 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $370 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 26 $141 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $379 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $453 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $162 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $313 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $177 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $143 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $139 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $162 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $165 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 19 $323 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $387 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $167 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $478 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 15 $188 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $166 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $145 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 14 $320 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $138 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $174 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $183 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 16d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 16d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 19d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 19d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 21d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $163 32d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $163 47d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $163 47d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $163 48d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $152 48d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $152 48d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 49d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 49d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $128 50d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $128 50d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $187 50d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $187 51d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $133 51d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $133 51d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $159 51d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $159 51d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $157 52d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $157 52d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $183 52d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $183 52d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $141 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 439 history records