Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:30:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D9 0xd9f0…52d9 sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$108 (+17%) realized +$111 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%17W / 10L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days+$21
14 days+$75
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$11
other 44% +$63
crypto 2% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +6.1% -4.0% 65% 65% -4.3%
≤30d 27 +8.3% -2.0% 63% 63% +0.8%
≤90d 27 +8.3% -2.0% 63% 63% +0.8%
all 27 +8.3% -2.0% 63% 63% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 63% +0.8%
10% -11.4% 63% -8.9%
15% -20.0% 63% -17.7%
20% -27.8% 48% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$19 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$111
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses17 / 10
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage24d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 54¢ 52¢ $98 $96 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $28 +$14 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 +$9 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 +$8 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $36 +$26 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $22 +$13 +60%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $7 +$5 +70%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $19 +$18 +93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$20 +67%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 +$12 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $17 −$17 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$12 +79%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $19 +$16 +83%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$14 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $40 +$44 +109%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 +$17 +109%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $8 +$8 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $27 +$11 +41%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $13 −$12 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $100 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $50 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $12 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $28 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $19 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $11 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $36 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $22 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $7 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $19 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $11 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $19 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $14 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $20 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $17 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $15 8d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $19 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $40 8d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $22 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $15 10d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $8 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $27 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 69¢ $13 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.72 · official $95.72 (match) · 46 history records