Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:49:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D9
0xd9f3…d2ac
other · 293 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$557 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$591 · open +$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$166
Realized−$591
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses65 / 217
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions11
Markets (closed)282 / 293
History coverage44d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day38.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 11 History 282 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$19
14 days−$194
30 days−$473
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 68¢ 74¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 72¢ 76¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+6%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No 50¢ 49¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 52¢ 62¢ $18 $22 +$3 (+18%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 40¢ 60¢ $13 $20 +$6 (+49%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 68¢ 97¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+43%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? No 44¢ 78¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+76%)
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? No 30¢ 72¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+138%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No 59¢ 53¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will "Swapped" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? No 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will SC Paderborn achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season? No 10¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Chicago Stars FC win on 2026-05-24? No 8¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-24? No 1¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will FC København win on 2026-05-21? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k? No 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Jaylen Brown be named to the 2026 All-NBA Second Team? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Jun 11 $50 −$4 -8%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 11 $25 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 11 $17 −$2 -12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $26 −$2 -8%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 10 $25 +$13 +52%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $30 $0 -1%
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? Jun 07 $17 −$11 -63%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 07 $80 −$11 -14%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 06 $8 −$1 -16%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 05 $72 −$7 -10%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $43 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 on June 3? Jun 03 $26 −$13 -52%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 03 $36 −$2 -7%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 03 $25 −$3 -14%
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Jun 03 $25 −$3 -10%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $25 −$2 -10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 5? Jun 03 $26 −$4 -16%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 03 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 03 $9 $0 -4%
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Jun 03 $25 −$3 -10%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 03 $25 −$4 -14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 03 $25 −$3 -12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 03 $25 −$4 -16%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 03 $51 −$4 -8%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $51 −$9 -17%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Jun 03 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +10%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song Jun 03 $25 −$7 -29%
No one announced as next James Bond? Jun 03 $79 −$9 -12%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 03 $16 −$1 -8%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 03 $25 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $26 +$5 +21%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $20 −$1 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $25 +$8 +31%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $36 −$4 -10%
Another pandemic before GTA VI? Jun 03 $26 −$2 -7%
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.00 and $4.00 on June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $25 +$4 +15%
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Jun 03 $25 $0 -2%
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $25 $0 -1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runof Jun 03 $25 $0 -1%
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? Jun 03 $25 +$1 +3%
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 03 $26 −$1 -2%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $36 +$2 +4%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $25 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $26 −$4 -16%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 June 1-7? Jun 03 $26 −$9 -36%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $43 −$5 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 32% −$81
sports 17% −$121
weather 13% −$165
world 8% −$9
crypto 7% −$80
politics 7% −$20
finance 6% +$12
culture 4% −$53
tech 4% −$48
economics 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 41¢ $2 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 41¢ $3 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 41¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 41¢ $8 1h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $6 7h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $7 7h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 60¢ $5 11h
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? SELL No 42¢ $2 22h
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? SELL No 41¢ $4 22h
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? SELL No 41¢ $8 22h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? SELL No 75¢ $5 24h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? SELL No 79¢ $10 24h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 50¢ $4 26h
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? SELL No 62¢ $6 31h
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? SELL No 64¢ $5 31h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 51¢ $4 31h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 31h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 52¢ $2 36h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 52¢ $4 36h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 52¢ $6 36h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 57¢ $17 43h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $18 2d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY No 59¢ $19 2d
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May? SELL No 99¢ $10 2d
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? SELL No 69¢ $5 2d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 46¢ $5 2d
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May? SELL No 48¢ $2 4d
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May? SELL No 47¢ $4 4d
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May? SELL No 47¢ $7 4d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 40¢ $26 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -7.1% -16.0% 20% 10% -14.8%
≤30d 257 -8.3% -17.1% 25% 16% -17.9%
≤90d 282 -10.7% -19.2% 23% 15% -19.1%
all 282 -10.7% -19.2% 23% 15% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover38.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 15% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 10% -26.8%
15% -34.0% 10% -33.9%
20% -40.4% 6% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.80 · official $165.80 (match) · 1766 history records