Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:08:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9fa…0991 politics 29 markets active 3d ago coverage 444d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%10W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$6
politics 18% +$1
other 14% $0
sports 7% $0
crypto 6% +$1
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.9% -11.2% 25% 0% -12.1%
≤30d 8 -1.9% -11.2% 25% 0% -12.1%
≤90d 8 -1.9% -11.2% 25% 0% -12.1%
all 29 -5.7% -14.7% 34% 3% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 3% -10.4%
10% -22.9% 3% -19.0%
15% -30.3% 0% -26.8%
20% -37.2% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

444d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage444d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $45 −$3 -7%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $49 −$4 -9%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $47 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 27 $12 $0 -1%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 13 $14 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 26 $14 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 20 $9 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 18 $8 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $8 $0 +5%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in his first 100 days? May 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Apr 21 $13 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times April 11–18? Apr 17 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 29 $4 +$1 +33%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 28 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $41 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $45 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $29 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $26 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $49 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $47 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records