Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:10:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D9 0xd9fc…0ab0 crypto 1443 markets active 3h ago coverage 113d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 113d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$518 (-3%) realized −$520 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate72%1341W / 511L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 113d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$114
sports 19% +$42
other 13% +$16
world 0% +$2
finance 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 615 -66.4% -69.6% 29% 2% -78.7%
≤30d 1455 -27.0% -34.0% 68% 8% -52.0%
≤90d 1581 -24.8% -32.0% 70% 8% -50.4%
all 1852 -21.5% -29.0% 72% 10% -48.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 10% -48.3%
10% -35.8% 4% -53.3%
15% -42.0% 2% -57.8%
20% -47.7% 1% -61.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$27 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$520
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses1341 / 511
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1852 / 1443
History coverage113d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1852 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 85¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 2AM ET Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 6, 8PM ET Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Blues vs. Sabres Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 3AM ET Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1AM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 14, 1AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-08? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 3AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $114 −$114 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 1PM ET Jun 17 $167 −$167 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 2AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 12PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 28, 1PM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $167 −$167 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 2PM ET Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 2, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 96¢ $30 5h
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) BUY Austria 98¢ $14 12h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 97¢ $50 12h
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Norway 98¢ $50 13h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $115 13h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 87¢ $15 13h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 88¢ $9 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 13h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY France 98¢ $10 13h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $20 13h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY France 95¢ $80 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $9 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $79 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $40 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $40 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.58 · official $56.58 · 3500 history records