Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:19:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D9 0xd9fd…c71a sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$10 (-9%) realized −$8 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -9.2% -17.9% 73% 73% -16.8%
≤30d 11 -9.2% -17.9% 73% 73% -16.8%
≤90d 11 -9.2% -17.9% 73% 73% -16.8%
all 11 -9.2% -17.9% 73% 73% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 73% -16.8%
10% -25.7% 45% -24.7%
15% -32.9% 9% -32.0%
20% -39.5% 0% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Under 82¢ 100¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+22%)
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 3.5 Under 79¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Under 79¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Under 81¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 +$3 +40%
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $9 +$1 +13%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$3 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $9 30m
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $10 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $10 16h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 77¢ $10 19h
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $8 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $8 22h
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 84¢ $10 22h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $10 25h
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 83¢ $10 25h
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 88¢ $9 27h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $9 43h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 79¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.74 · official $10.74 (match) · 20 history records