Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:46:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D9
0xd9ff…79dc
other · 214 markets active 6h ago
2.5score
−$112,061 -23%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$119,560 · open +$14,330
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$66,780
Realized−$119,560
Unrealized+$14,330
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses98 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,036
Open positions6
Markets (closed)208 / 214
History coverage358d
Avg bet$2,283
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%
Chart Positions 6 History 208 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12,178
7 days+$13,729
14 days+$2,964
30 days−$2,199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $21,448 $28,243 +$6,795 (+32%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 31¢ 44¢ $10,896 $15,628 +$4,732 (+43%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 48¢ $4,407 $6,998 +$2,591 (+59%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 34¢ 45¢ $4,804 $6,315 +$1,511 (+31%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 44¢ 32¢ $7,275 $5,247 −$2,028 (-28%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $3,620 $4,349 +$729 (+20%)
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) Crystal Palace FC 37¢ 0¢ $605 $0 −$605 (-100%)
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $1,200 $0 −$1,200 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $486 $0 −$486 (-100%)
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF win on 2026-05-25? No 36¢ 0¢ $550 $0 −$550 (-100%)
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-16? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $915 $0 −$915 (-100%)
Will Molde FK win on 2026-05-25? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $675 $0 −$675 (-100%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $1,621 $0 −$1,621 (-100%)
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5) AFC Bournemouth 18¢ 0¢ $225 $0 −$225 (-100%)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $422 $0 −$422 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals Baltimore Orioles 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $1,120 $0 −$1,120 (-100%)
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $2,232 $0 −$2,232 (-100%)
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $720 $0 −$720 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $3,300 $0 −$3,300 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud Casper Ruud 18¢ 0¢ $705 $0 −$705 (-100%)
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $812 $0 −$812 (-100%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 52¢ 0¢ $1,120 $0 −$1,120 (-100%)
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-09? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $900 $0 −$900 (-100%)
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,538 +$2,462 +97%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $3,558 +$4,288 +120%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $1,748 +$1,991 +114%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $13,430 +$3,437 +26%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 11 $887 +$1,017 +115%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 10 $997 +$967 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1,566 +$986 +63%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1,648 −$1,621 -98%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $813 −$800 -98%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $914 −$900 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 09 $1,824 +$997 +55%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $508 +$534 +105%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 08 $508 +$506 +100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 08 $718 −$705 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 08 $1,443 +$1,014 +70%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 08 $1,785 +$1,012 +57%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $1,480 −$550 -37%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $812 −$420 -52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $496 −$486 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 06 $1,136 −$1,120 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 05 $1,500 −$1,209 -81%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $14,862 −$10,710 -72%
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $685 +$908 +133%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $610 +$709 +116%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1,217 −$1,200 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 04 $391 −$203 -52%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1,136 −$1,120 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $644 +$1,019 +158%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $4,594 +$1,199 +26%
Poland vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $608 +$509 +84%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $636 +$1,374 +216%
Austria vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $935 −$920 -98%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $912 +$989 +108%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $733 −$720 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $121 −$70 -58%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3,349 −$3,300 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $3,265 −$3,265 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $2,693 +$3,068 +114%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) May 27 $616 −$605 -98%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $3,137 −$3,100 -99%
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $561 −$550 -98%
Will Molde FK win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $687 −$675 -98%
Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $4,710 +$2,549 +54%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2,021 +$1,081 +54%
Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5) May 24 $2,584 +$2,051 +79%
Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5) May 24 $850 +$184 +22%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2,298 +$2,011 +88%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3,096 −$2,387 -77%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2,359 −$2,326 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 43% −$94,451
other 42% −$19,429
sports 14% +$10,813
finance 1% −$2,669
crypto 0% +$506
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 49¢ $818 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 48¢ $1,842 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 34¢ $28 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 34¢ $41 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 34¢ $83 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 34¢ $44 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 34¢ $22 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 34¢ $635 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2,100 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 44¢ $1,600 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,825 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 46¢ $1,724 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $1,900 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1,760 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 43¢ $1,493 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $1,265 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 38¢ $1,225 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2,666 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 32¢ $1,000 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 25¢ $3,331 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 37¢ $1,200 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 26¢ $1,800 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,887 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $2,416 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $2,388 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2,100 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $3,620 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $15,763 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $1,104 19h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 46¢ $1,748 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +22.6% +10.9% 63% 63% +23.5%
≤30d 80 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 50% -9.5%
≤90d 203 -1.2% -10.6% 46% 46% -15.1%
all 208 +0.6% -9.0% 47% 47% -35.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 47% -35.1%
10% -17.7% 46% -41.3%
15% -25.6% 42% -47.0%
20% -32.9% 38% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66,779.67 · official $66,613.10 (match) · 515 history records