Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:20:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
DA 0xda00…61b4 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$4 (+13%) realized +$5 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$2
other 16% +$4
crypto 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +21.4% +9.9% 69% 62% +15.1%
≤30d 13 +21.4% +9.9% 69% 62% +15.1%
≤90d 13 +21.4% +9.9% 69% 62% +15.1%
all 13 +21.4% +9.9% 69% 62% +15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.9% 62% +15.1%
10% ← realistic here -0.6% 38% +4.1%
15% -10.2% 38% -6.0%
20% -19.0% 38% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)13 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Colorado Rockies 44¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+127%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+108%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 60¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 43¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? No 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 59¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 69¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 25¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 41¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Under 56¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Athletics 68¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Under 75¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 42¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 63¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Marc-Andrea Huesler 60¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$4 +134%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$2 +165%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $1 +$2 +134%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$1 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 60¢ $1 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 69¢ $1 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 43¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 47¢ $1 2h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 90¢ $1 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 2h
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Atlanta Dream 82¢ $1 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 44¢ $1 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 55¢ $1 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 25¢ $1 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $1 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 68¢ $1 2h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 40¢ $1 2h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Katarzyna Kawa 47¢ $1 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $1 2h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 42¢ $1 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $1 3h
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel BUY Taro Daniel 42¢ $1 32h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 37¢ $1 32h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $1 32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $2 32h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $2 32h
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler BUY Marc-Andrea Huesler 60¢ $2 33h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 26¢ $2 33h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $1 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.84 · official $9.85 (match) · 36 history records