Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:31:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DA 0xda01…ef17 world 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$13 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate100%11W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$469now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$4
sports 17% +$12
other 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.4% -2.0% 100% 25% -1.8%
≤30d 4 +8.4% -2.0% 100% 25% -1.8%
≤90d 7 +8.6% -1.7% 100% 29% -2.5%
all 11 +10.6% +0.1% 100% 27% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 27% -2.4%
10% -9.5% 9% -11.7%
15% -18.2% 9% -20.3%
20% -26.2% 0% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$469
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses11 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage121d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 95¢ 94¢ $423 $416 −$7 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $38 $35 −$2 (-6%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 79¢ 68¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 29 $34 +$4 +11%
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart Jun 29 $31 +$3 +8%
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 29 $30 +$2 +8%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Jun 29 $27 +$2 +6%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, Apr 05 $27 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31? Apr 02 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +4%
Set 1 Winner: Medvedev vs Griekspoor Mar 16 $6 +$3 +42%
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? Mar 16 $19 +$1 +8%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Daniil Medvedev vs Tallon Griekspoor Feb 28 $18 +$1 +6%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $21 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $38 47m
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Jannik Sinner 100¢ $38 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Jannik Sinner 90¢ $34 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart SELL Jelena Ostapenko 100¢ $34 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Jelena Ostapenko 92¢ $31 5h
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Darja Vidmanova BUY Jessica Pegula 92¢ $30 11h
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $29 11h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY No 95¢ $423 55d
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $27 85d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, SELL No 96¢ $27 85d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY No 79¢ $20 88d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, BUY No 95¢ $27 105d
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? BUY No 93¢ $19 120d
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31? BUY No 82¢ $8 121d
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by March 31? BUY No 96¢ $10 121d
Dubai Tennis Championships: Daniil Medvedev vs Tallon Griekspoor SELL Tallon Griekspoor 19¢ $0 121d
Dubai Tennis Championships: Daniil Medvedev vs Tallon Griekspoor SELL Tallon Griekspoor 19¢ $11 121d
Dubai Tennis Championships: Daniil Medvedev vs Tallon Griekspoor SELL Tallon Griekspoor 19¢ $7 121d
Set 1 Winner: Medvedev vs Griekspoor BUY Griekspoor 26¢ $4 121d
Set 1 Winner: Medvedev vs Griekspoor SELL Griekspoor 21¢ $2 121d
Set 1 Winner: Medvedev vs Griekspoor BUY Griekspoor 26¢ $3 121d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 121d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $21 121d
Dubai Tennis Championships: Daniil Medvedev vs Tallon Griekspoor BUY Tallon Griekspoor 18¢ $18 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $468.91 · official $468.91 (match) · 29 history records