Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xda08…0e21 world 313 markets active 2h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,731 (+20%) realized +$1,917 · open −$186
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate41%120W / 175L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days+$17
14 days+$731
30 days+$1,160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$1,070
politics 20% +$403
other 17% −$463
crypto 7% +$519
sports 5% −$175
economics 3% +$98
tech 2% +$271
finance 0% +$2
culture 0% −$3
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +41.4% +27.9% 75% 50% -0.8%
≤30d 38 +22.7% +11.0% 42% 32% +38.9%
≤90d 202 +17.6% +6.4% 35% 27% +13.2%
all 295 +10.5% -0.1% 41% 29% +11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 29% +11.7%
10% -9.6% 24% +1.0%
15% -18.4% 20% -8.8%
20% -26.4% 18% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$11 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized+$1,917
Unrealized−$186
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses120 / 175
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions18
Markets (closed)295 / 313
History coverage306d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 295 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $53 $54 +$2 (+4%)
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Petr Yan next? Yes 84¢ 72¢ $52 $44 −$8 (-15%)
Larry Wheels divorce by June 30? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $34 $27 −$7 (-21%)
United x American Airlines merger/acquisition announced in 2026? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+20%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Yes 29¢ 12¢ $28 $12 −$16 (-57%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $53 $11 −$41 (-79%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 30¢ 6¢ $44 $9 −$34 (-78%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 27¢ 33¢ $5 $7 +$1 (+22%)
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 43¢ 5¢ $43 $5 −$38 (-88%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $37 $4 −$32 (-89%)
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes 13¢ 36¢ $1 $4 +$2 (+181%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-55%)
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $2 −$4 (-64%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? Yes 16¢ 3¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-79%)
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-87%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $84 −$23 -27%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 23 $13 +$20 +154%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 21 $25 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $52 +$19 +36%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $27 −$6 -22%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $230 −$27 -12%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $95 +$79 +83%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $180 +$154 +86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $572 +$442 +77%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $82 +$15 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $24 −$2 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $51 +$60 +119%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $70 +$50 +71%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $38 +$2 +7%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 10 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 05 $56 −$30 -55%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Clavicular be banned from Kick by May 31? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $32 −$12 -36%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $373 +$534 +143%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $29 +$11 +39%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? May 31 $64 +$2 +3%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $70 +$10 +14%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? May 30 $10 +$3 +25%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 30 $38 −$16 -41%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $32 −$18 -57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $64 −$21 -33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $26 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $32 +$18 +56%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 26 $14 $0 +4%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 25 $132 +$418 +315%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 7, 2026? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $9 +$2 +16%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 20 $9 $0 -0%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Will "Mistake" be said during Eurovision? May 17 $0 +$5 +1487%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 17 $16 +$28 +177%
Will "Europe" be said 10+ times during Eurovision? May 16 $8 −$7 -92%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 16 $102 −$40 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $61 1h
United x American Airlines merger/acquisition announced in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 44h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $32 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $13 4d
Larry Wheels divorce by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 4d
Larry Wheels divorce by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 4d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL Yes 62¢ $2 4d
Larry Wheels divorce by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 4d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $26 5d
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $43 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 10¢ $30 6d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 6d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $23 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $32 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $18 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $33 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $21 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $24 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 7d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $20 7d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 7d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 8¢ $17 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $29 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.57 · official $206.58 (match) · 1338 history records