Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:55:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

DA 0xda0a…29f8 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$167 (+29%) realized +$169 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip

Net edge+14%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%15W / 5L

Drawdown19%max

Avg bet$27per market

Trades / day5.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit32%portable

Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+19.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+31.6%	+19.1%	75%	75%	+21.5%
≤30d	20	+31.6%	+19.1%	75%	75%	+21.5%
≤90d	20	+31.6%	+19.1%	75%	75%	+21.5%
all	20	+31.6%	+19.1%	75%	75%	+21.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+19.1%	75%	+21.5%
10%	+7.7%	70%	+9.9%
15%	-2.7%	70%	-0.7%
20%	-12.3%	50%	-10.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +32% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +30% → late +33% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×3.3 per $1 lost it wins $3.3

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$68

Realized+$169

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses15 / 5

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 22

History coverage7d

Avg bet$27

Trades / day5.1

Drawdown19%

Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	62¢	60¢	$70	$68	−$2 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$51	+$29	+57%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$50	+$9	+17%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	Jun 23	$10	+$7	+64%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals	Jun 23	$10	+$19	+188%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$51	+$25	+50%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$20	+$12	+60%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$20	+$10	+48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$40	+$19	+48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$50	+$22	+43%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$35	+$25	+70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$15	−$15	-98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5	Jun 20	$10	+$7	+70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	+$7	+70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$22	+$14	+62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$15	−$15	-99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$9	+$9	+93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$10	+$19	+188%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	62¢	$71	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$79	18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	63¢	$51	22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	81¢	$59	22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	24h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	100¢	$17	29h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	60¢	$10	30h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals	SELL Yes	100¢	$29	46h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	34¢	$10	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$77	2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	66¢	$51	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$20	3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	71¢	$20	3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$30	3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	67¢	$20	3d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	42¢	$41	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$60	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$40	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$72	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	69¢	$50	4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$60	4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$35	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$15	4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5	SELL Under	100¢	$17	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$17	4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5	BUY Under	58¢	$10	5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$36	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.31 · official $68.31 (match) · 39 history records