Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:06:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DA 0xda0d…fb82 sports 213 markets active 2h ago coverage 320d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,912 (-27%) realized −$3,664 · open −$248
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%92W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$892now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$37
14 days+$71
30 days+$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$4,527
sports 44% +$961
other 8% −$281
culture 1% −$61
politics 1% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -10.9% -19.3% 36% 36% -15.4%
≤30d 134 +5.9% -4.2% 46% 46% -4.4%
≤90d 192 +4.1% -5.8% 45% 45% +0.3%
all 205 +7.6% -2.7% 45% 45% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 45% -34.8%
10% -12.0% 44% -41.1%
15% -20.5% 43% -46.8%
20% -28.3% 42% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$71 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$892
Realized−$3,664
Unrealized−$248
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses92 / 113
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions8
Markets (closed)205 / 213
History coverage320d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 65¢ 74¢ $500 $577 +$77 (+15%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $500 $180 −$320 (-64%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 57¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 33¢ 32¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $15 −$1 -6%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $30 +$32 +105%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $51 +$77 +152%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $20 +$20 +97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 +$26 +128%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $41 +$41 +101%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$14 -71%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $51 −$38 -74%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$8 -78%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $20 +$49 +238%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$23 +114%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$11 +56%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$24 +118%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $41 +$33 +82%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $20 −$6 -29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$9 -46%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $31 −$9 -30%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $20 +$26 +129%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$22 +109%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$36 -70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 +$67 +132%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$54 +107%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$44 -86%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $61 −$30 -49%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$13 +62%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$13 +86%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 +$47 +93%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$23 +114%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$20 +101%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$15 +152%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$30 +146%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 +$35 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 36¢ $14 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $20 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $20 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $41 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 15h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 15h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $31 15h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $41 15h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $0 4d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $128 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 12¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 53¢ $30 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 36¢ $20 4d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 50¢ $20 4d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 52¢ $20 4d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $51 5d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $46 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $82 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 15¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 11¢ $0 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 11¢ $13 5d
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $891.75 · official $891.75 (match) · 538 history records