Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda0e…ae78 other 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-1%) realized −$63 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%44W / 63L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$3
other 26% −$1
world 18% −$5
sports 11% −$1
tech 2% −$52
crypto 1% +$3
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.7% -10.1% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -2.4% -11.7% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 28 -2.9% -12.2% 29% 0% -10.1%
all 107 -0.8% -10.2% 41% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 3% -10.1%
10% -18.8% 1% -18.7%
15% -26.7% 1% -26.5%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses44 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage473d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $140 $142 +$2 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $115 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $143 +$1 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $76 −$3 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 19 $46 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $12 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $327 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $321 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $127 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $24 −$5 -22%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $133 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $210 −$4 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $155 +$2 +2%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 27 $99 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $104 −$52 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $149 +$4 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 16 $147 +$2 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $975 +$1 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $975 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $978 −$3 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $78 −$2 -3%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $982 −$2 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $153 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,080 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $982 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $982 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Jul 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jul 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? Jul 16 $1 $0 +16%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 16 $8 $0 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 14 $5 $0 -1%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 13 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 12 $4 $0 +12%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 10 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $140 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $115 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $115 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $135 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $143 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $43 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $30 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $72 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $46 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $7 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $3 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $27 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $9 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $3 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $12 40h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $164 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $164 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $13 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $164 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $164 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $164 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $164 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $127 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.73 · official $144.73 (match) · 367 history records