Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:48:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DA 0xda0f…f0e7 other 266 markets active 3h ago coverage 132d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 131d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$153,561 (+65%) realized +$153,579 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate58%152W / 110L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$882per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Fees−$727est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$271now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 132d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$23,363
politics 22% $0
world 18% +$3,318
sports 13% +$1,835
crypto 3% +$173
tech 0% −$499
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +18.9% +7.6% 64% 50% -1.1%
≤30d 36 -10.6% -19.1% 53% 31% -11.4%
≤90d 171 +13.1% +2.3% 60% 39% -2.2%
all 262 +10.7% +0.2% 58% 38% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.2% 38% +1.4%
10% -9.4% 28% -8.3%
15% ← realistic here -18.1% 21% -17.2%
20% -26.2% 16% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$747) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$358 vs −$242 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$271
Realized+$153,579
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses152 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$727
Open positions4
Markets (closed)262 / 266
History coverage132d ⚠
Avg bet$882
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 35¢ 31¢ $149 $133 −$16 (-11%)
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 42¢ 48¢ $59 $68 +$9 (+15%)
Will South Africa be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 89¢ 82¢ $49 $45 −$4 (-8%)
Will Belgium be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $32 $25 −$7 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $3,155 +$1,516 +48%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $209 +$34 +16%
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 21 $26 +$12 +45%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $171 +$139 +81%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $1,479 −$1,202 -81%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $659 +$294 +45%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $522 +$628 +120%
Will USA be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 19 $320 +$10 +3%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $807 −$615 -76%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $93 −$93 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54.5 and 55 million views on day Jun 19 $7 +$15 +220%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $256 +$17 +6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $747 −$747 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $175 −$162 -92%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $402 +$85 +21%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $247 −$17 -7%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $370 +$10 +3%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $70 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $611 −$18 -3%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $247 −$129 -52%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $70 −$70 -100%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $23 +$10 +46%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2,311 +$23 +1%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $110 −$81 -74%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $510 −$35 -7%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $179 −$157 -88%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $685 +$92 +13%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $269 +$50 +19%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $769 −$183 -24%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $428 +$39 +9%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $320 −$59 -18%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $19 −$10 -56%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5,959 +$173 +3%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $4,343 +$5 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 52 million views on day 3 May 19 $140 +$276 +198%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 3 May 19 $38 −$30 -79%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 17 $259 +$1,590 +613%
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? May 17 $347 +$395 +114%
Will Falcons win PGL Astana 2026? May 17 $179 −$136 -76%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 17 $175 −$174 -100%
Will BetBoom Team win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 16 $116 −$53 -46%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 16 $146 +$37 +26%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 May 16 $248 +$90 +36%
Will GamerLegion win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 16 $46 −$45 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 May 16 $51 +$8 +16%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner May 16 $326 +$73 +22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 16 $1,180 +$89 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $177 −$177 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $37 3h
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $23 3h
Will Belgium be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $33 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 81¢ $137 10h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 81¢ $88 10h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 79¢ $18 10h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $209 10h
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the Wo SELL Yes 35¢ $3 16h
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 18h
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 18h
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 18h
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 18h
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $18 18h
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 18h
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the Wo SELL Yes 35¢ $18 18h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 27h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $18 27h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 27h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 27h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $68 27h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $97 27h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $12 27h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $17 27h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 27h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 27h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $542 28h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $50 28h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,186 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $81 29h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $77 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.67 · official $270.67 (match) · 3500 history records