Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:30:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DA 0xda10…1028 other 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,695 (-20%) realized −$6,192 · open −$503
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate54%45W / 39L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$383per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$797now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$680
7 days+$761
14 days+$911
30 days+$826
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% −$5,965
world 22% −$912
other 18% −$524
sports 12% +$725
politics 8% +$115
finance 5% −$362
economics 1% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -10.5% -19.0% 48% 38% -1.1%
≤30d 35 -8.5% -17.2% 51% 37% -1.7%
≤90d 56 -16.1% -24.1% 52% 34% -11.5%
all 84 -13.7% -21.9% 54% 31% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 31% -27.1%
10% -29.4% 24% -34.1%
15% -36.2% 19% -40.5%
20% -42.5% 14% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$262 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$797
Realized−$6,192
Unrealized−$503
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses45 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions5
Markets (closed)84 / 89
History coverage157d
Avg bet$383
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $900 $458 −$441 (-49%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Trump on $250 bill this year? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $100 $63 −$37 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,001 +$51 +5%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$109 +54%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $304 +$212 +70%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$93 -91%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,109 +$521 +47%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,103 +$224 +20%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$158 +514%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $151 +$59 +39%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,002 +$73 +7%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,108 +$161 +14%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,001 +$39 +4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$84 -83%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$60 +59%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $101 +$65 +64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$54 -53%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $304 −$239 -79%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $103 −$16 -16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +41%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 09 $203 +$9 +4%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 05 $301 −$8 -3%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $304 +$148 +49%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 01 $205 +$11 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 24 $203 +$103 +51%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 20 $200 −$198 -99%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 15 $209 −$65 -31%
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? May 15 $105 +$2 +2%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Fed rate hike in 2026? May 14 $200 +$18 +9%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 May 07 $100 +$68 +68%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the May 06 $500 +$21 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $600 −$600 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? May 01 $100 +$59 +59%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? Apr 13 $200 +$45 +22%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 12 $300 +$161 +54%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 12 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Mar 31 $300 +$73 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 29? Mar 22 $642 −$312 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,001 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $515 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 25h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 26h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $1,007 47h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,327 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,001 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $210 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,076 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,002 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,192 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,005 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $76 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $796.81 · official $796.81 (match) · 226 history records