Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:04:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DA 0xda14…77f1 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,149 (-39%) realized −$1,149 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days−$968
14 days−$1,246
30 days−$1,246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$1,196
world 2% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -12.1% -20.4% 60% 60% -47.0%
≤30d 17 -13.6% -21.8% 53% 53% -47.8%
≤90d 17 -13.6% -21.8% 53% 53% -47.8%
all 17 -13.6% -21.8% 53% 53% -47.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 53% -47.8%
10% -29.3% 29% -52.8%
15% -36.1% 24% -57.3%
20% -42.4% 18% -61.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$204 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,149
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage10d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 −$60 -60%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 $0 +16%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $102 −$43 -42%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $153 +$19 +13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $203 +$137 +68%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 $0 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $304 +$171 +56%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $110 +$16 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +62%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,009 −$1,000 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $608 −$279 -46%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 19¢ $41 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 21¢ $59 25h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 29h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 30h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 40¢ $172 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $340 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 89¢ $475 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $304 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 92¢ $137 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 87¢ $110 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $51 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,009 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 22¢ $330 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $202 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records