Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:25:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DA 0xda1a…2285 crypto 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$267 (+22%) realized +$267 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%25W / 17L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$406
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +13.2% +2.4% 60% 60% +21.3%
≤30d 42 +13.2% +2.4% 60% 60% +21.3%
≤90d 42 +13.2% +2.4% 60% 60% +21.3%
all 42 +13.2% +2.4% 60% 60% +21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.4% 60% +21.3%
10% ← realistic here -7.4% 60% +9.7%
15% -16.3% 57% -0.9%
20% -24.5% 55% -10.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$20 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$267
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses25 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage2d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $109 +$110 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$23 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $110 +$109 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$25 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $55 +$57 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$19 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $55 +$48 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$18 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$24 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$17 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$22 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$21 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$22 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$50 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$13 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$34 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$12 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$37 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $109 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $55 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $110 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $55 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $55 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $55 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $25 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $25 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $25 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $50 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $22 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $22 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $20 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $45 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $20 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records