Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:20:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda1b…75d8 sports 778 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+0%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate58%434W / 312L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$26
14 days+$51
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$62
other 10% +$101
politics 2% +$6
culture 1% −$143
crypto 1% −$36
tech 1% −$10
world 0% −$6
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +5.2% -4.8% 54% 52% +1.5%
≤30d 352 -0.7% -10.2% 58% 37% -9.1%
≤90d 647 -5.9% -14.8% 59% 34% -9.6%
all 746 -6.5% -15.4% 58% 34% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 34% -9.6%
10% -23.5% 25% -18.2%
15% -30.9% 17% -26.1%
20% -37.6% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses434 / 312
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions25
Markets (closed)746 / 778
History coverage224d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 746 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 61¢ 60¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 59¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 58¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 7¢ 13¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+84%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Over 37¢ 37¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $3 −$2 -80%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $4 +$2 +50%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +39%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $3 +$2 +77%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 +$4 +172%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $4 $0 -12%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $3 +$2 +55%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +93%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $3 +$2 +86%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 -5%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $4 +$3 +76%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $3 +$2 +70%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $4 +$3 +86%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -74%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $3 −$2 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +62%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $3 +$2 +70%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 10 $3 $0 -4%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $7 $0 -1%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $13 +$7 +54%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +20%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $5 +$2 +40%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $7 $0 +6%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $19 +$6 +32%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $5 +$2 +31%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $3 +$1 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 48¢ $1 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $3 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $2 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $2 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 37¢ $3 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 45¢ $2 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 59¢ $5 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $5 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $5 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 12¢ $0 13h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY 50¢ $3 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 15h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17 BUY 49¢ $3 15h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY 33¢ $3 23h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $3 24h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 24h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 24h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1 24h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 66¢ $4 24h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17 BUY 42¢ $5 35h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 35h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $3 38h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $1 40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 16¢ $2 40h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.96 · official $73.96 · 1675 history records