Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:32:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda20…cb8d sports 117 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$66 (+0%) realized +$84 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate37%43W / 72L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$370per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$766est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,084now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$323
7 days+$197
14 days+$262
30 days−$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$68
other 19% −$108
politics 10% −$81
culture 2% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +1.0% -8.6% 63% 12% -8.0%
≤30d 109 -0.3% -9.8% 39% 6% -10.0%
≤90d 115 -0.5% -10.0% 37% 6% -10.1%
all 115 -0.5% -10.0% 37% 6% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 6% -10.1%
10% -18.6% 4% -18.7%
15% -26.5% 3% -26.6%
20% -33.7% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$20 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$1,084
Realized+$84
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses43 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$766
Open positions2
Markets (closed)115 / 117
History coverage38d
Avg bet$370
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? No 95¢ 94¢ $712 $705 −$7 (-1%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $390 $379 −$11 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $701 −$5 -1%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $420 −$6 -1%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 17 $278 +$7 +3%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $390 −$58 -15%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 17 $438 −$2 -0%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $122 +$18 +15%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $225 +$8 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $398 +$352 +89%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $330 +$7 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $7 $0 +3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 +$3 +82%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $368 $0 -0%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $255 −$13 -5%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $338 +$7 +2%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $450 −$48 -11%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $450 −$36 -8%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $450 −$43 -10%
Cabo Verde to win the second half? Jun 15 $365 +$5 +1%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $265 −$19 -7%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $275 −$14 -5%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $265 −$5 -2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $450 +$10 +2%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $160 +$4 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $477 +$8 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $36 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $23 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $47 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $42 +$1 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $22 +$1 +2%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $700 +$204 +29%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $790 +$20 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $295 +$7 +2%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $325 −$325 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $397 +$13 +3%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $318 +$8 +2%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $430 +$10 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $158 +$3 +2%
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs PCIFIC (+1.5) Jun 11 $174 +$75 +43%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $670 −$73 -11%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $730 −$57 -8%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $295 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $19 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $225 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $275 +$10 +4%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 10 $250 +$5 +2%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $362 −$3 -1%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $270 −$4 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 52¢ $390 6m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 93¢ $696 43m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL No 56¢ $414 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $370 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $6 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $12 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $25 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $701 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? BUY No 95¢ $713 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 38¢ $9 19h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 38¢ $82 19h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 38¢ $99 19h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 38¢ $2 19h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 38¢ $2 19h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 38¢ $9 19h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 38¢ $25 19h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 38¢ $25 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 45¢ $332 20h
Ghana leading at halftime? SELL No 68¢ $298 20h
Ghana leading at halftime? SELL No 69¢ $20 20h
Ghana leading at halftime? SELL No 69¢ $2 20h
Ghana leading at halftime? SELL No 69¢ $27 20h
Ghana leading at halftime? SELL No 69¢ $89 20h
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY No 68¢ $438 20h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 38¢ $32 20h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 37¢ $278 22h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 56¢ $11 35h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 56¢ $4 35h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 56¢ $3 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,084.12 · official $1,084.12 (match) · 521 history records