Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:07:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda21…b401 sports 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%17W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$3
other 23% −$2
politics 20% −$2
culture 11% $0
crypto 8% −$2
economics 5% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 3 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.3%
all 137 -0.9% -10.3% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 120
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage163d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 98¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $157 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $53 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 15 $56 −$2 -3%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 16 $248 +$1 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 16 $265 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 16 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 16 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 16 $133 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 16 $106 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Feb 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 16 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $121 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 15 $112 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 15 $83 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 15 $113 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Feb 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 15 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 15 $113 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 12 $138 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 12 $117 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 12 $99 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 09 $181 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 09 $233 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 09 $61 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 09 $118 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 09 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 09 $56 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 09 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 09 $77 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 09 $174 −$1 -1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 09 $65 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 09 $119 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 09 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 09 $102 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $45 1h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $44 12d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $44 12d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $53 25d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $53 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 90¢ $54 39d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 92¢ $56 40d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $51 128d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 128d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $58 128d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $59 128d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $56 128d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $56 128d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 128d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 128d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 96¢ $56 128d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 93¢ $51 128d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 93¢ $51 128d
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 128d
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 128d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $55 128d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $55 128d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $55 128d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $55 128d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $51 128d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $51 128d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $57 128d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $57 128d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $56 128d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $56 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.69 · official $44.69 (match) · 517 history records