Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:58:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DA
0xda27…261b
world · 72 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$19 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$27
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses22 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage524d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 2 History 70 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $32 −$3 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $97 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $63 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $96 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $48 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 29 $38 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $58 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $29 +$1 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $63 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $13 −$1 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $33 −$4 -12%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $107 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $8 −$1 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 18 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $42 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $33 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 16 $39 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $110 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $1 $0 +19%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $69 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 10 $35 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 09 $103 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $69 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 08 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 07 $111 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 07 $69 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $1 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 04 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 34% −$7
other 27% −$13
politics 22% $0
sports 11% +$1
economics 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $30 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $32 11h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $24 4d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $9 4d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $32 4d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $29 5d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $29 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $12 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $15 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $3 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $29 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $30 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $2 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $32 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $24 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $29 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $4 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $26 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $17 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $20 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $32 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $8 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.4% -11.7% 25% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 25 -1.5% -10.8% 28% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 30% 3% -9.8%
all 70 +1.6% -8.1% 31% 6% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 6% -10.1%
10% -16.9% 3% -18.7%
15% -24.9% 1% -26.6%
20% -32.3% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.54 · official $26.18 (match) · 281 history records