Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:21:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DA 0xda28…e0c2 crypto 685 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (148 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%276W / 408L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day148.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$125
7 days−$120
14 days−$143
30 days−$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$143
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (148 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 621 +2.2% -7.6% 41% 38% -13.2%
≤30d 684 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 37% -13.8%
≤90d 684 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 37% -13.8%
all 684 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 37% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover148.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 37% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 35% -22.0%
15% -26.3% 32% -29.6%
20% -33.5% 30% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses276 / 408
Open positions1
Markets (closed)684 / 685
History coverage11d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day148.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 684 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Down 61¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -26%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +72%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -71%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$3 -35%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +56%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -35%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$13 -68%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +72%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +85%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +125%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $4 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $3 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $3 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 35m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $3 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.19 · official $1.13 (match) · 2215 history records