Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:20:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xda29…4fe0 crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$605 (+12%) realized +$605 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$563
other 0% −$6
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -16.0% -24.0% 52% 45% +0.6%
≤30d 29 -16.0% -24.0% 52% 45% +0.6%
≤90d 29 -16.0% -24.0% 52% 45% +0.6%
all 29 -16.0% -24.0% 52% 45% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 45% +0.6%
10% -31.3% 41% -9.0%
15% -37.9% 31% -17.8%
20% -44.0% 21% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$75 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$605
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage4d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $825 −$213 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $312 −$18 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $506 +$336 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $412 −$200 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$102 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $205 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$46 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $311 +$191 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$24 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $362 +$123 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $155 +$92 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $207 +$63 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $202 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $95 −$90 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $498 +$391 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $331 +$213 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $87 +$32 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $612 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $825 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $294 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $312 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $842 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $499 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $206 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $218 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $207 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $205 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $207 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $149 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $502 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $311 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $99 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $76 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $485 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $362 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $247 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $155 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $270 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $207 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $221 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records