Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:38:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DA 0xda2b…85fe sports 187 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,504 (-2%) realized −$1,852 · open +$348
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%38W / 137L
Whale WR34%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$376per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$1,125est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 71d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$5,485
other 25% +$3,283
world 2% −$1,154
crypto 0% −$123
politics 0% −$104
tech 0% −$10
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -36.4% -42.5% 22% 22% -23.0%
≤30d 172 -19.8% -27.4% 22% 22% -14.8%
≤90d 175 -19.9% -27.5% 22% 22% -14.8%
all 175 -19.9% -27.5% 22% 22% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 22% -14.8%
10% -34.5% 22% -23.0%
15% -40.8% 22% -30.4%
20% -46.6% 20% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 34% (≥$509) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$931 vs −$287 · ×3.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$1,188
Realized−$1,852
Unrealized+$348
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses38 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)34%
Est. fees paid−$1,125
Open positions5
Markets (closed)175 / 187
History coverage71d
Avg bet$376
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Hamad Medjedovic 39¢ 70¢ $488 $876 +$388 (+79%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $197 $217 +$20 (+10%)
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Alina Shcherbinina Patsy Daughters 18¢ 8¢ $100 $41 −$59 (-59%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+22%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Tulsa: Nicolas Arseneault vs Christian Langmo Jun 18 $72 −$70 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $925 −$911 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$24 -94%
DR Congo leading at halftime? Jun 17 $114 −$111 -97%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $307 −$300 -98%
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Jun 17 $308 −$300 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $357 −$357 -100%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $453 −$453 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $701 −$701 -100%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $509 −$500 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $511 −$500 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $813 −$800 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,009 +$428 +42%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $102 +$369 +360%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $987 +$2,233 +226%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 14 $252 −$252 -100%
ITF kiseljak: Sergi Perez Contri vs Ivan Biletic Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,134 −$1,134 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $717 −$717 -100%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 14 $1,022 −$1,022 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,023 +$3,280 +321%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $668 −$668 -100%
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) Jun 12 $497 +$612 +123%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,197 +$958 +44%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $176 +$327 +185%
ITF Maanshan: Pawit Sornlaksup vs Fanming Meng Jun 11 $77 −$77 -100%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 11 $124 −$124 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 11 $815 −$815 -100%
Ilkley: Alex Bolt vs Keegan Smith Jun 10 $715 +$1,897 +265%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 10 $258 −$258 -100%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $740 −$740 -100%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
ITF Wuning: Yidi Yang vs Kira Pavlova Jun 09 $103 −$103 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova Jun 09 $436 −$436 -100%
HSBC Championships: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 09 $228 +$512 +225%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $177 +$404 +228%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Ymer (+1.5) Jun 08 $641 −$641 -100%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1,235 +$2,305 +187%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $507 +$427 +84%
ITF Sumter: Kristina Liutova vs Reese Brantmeier Jun 08 $97 −$97 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Kamilla Rakhi Jun 08 $59 −$59 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Alina Shcherbinina BUY Patsy Daughters 18¢ $102 1h
ITF Tulsa: Nicolas Arseneault vs Christian Langmo BUY Nicolas Arseneault 7¢ $72 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Her BUY 20¢ $256 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 39¢ $497 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $925 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 35h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 AND BUY 10¢ $283 35h
DR Congo leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $114 35h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $307 35h
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $308 35h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $509 2d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 28¢ $511 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $813 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1,009 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $471 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $102 3d
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Harry Wendelken 35¢ $453 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Saudi BUY 14¢ $342 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $357 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,221 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $987 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 49¢ $701 4d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY 6¢ $263 4d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 29¢ $286 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec BUY Veronika Erjavec 42¢ $252 5d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $1,134 5d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Qatar vs. Switze BUY 10¢ $514 5d
ITF kiseljak: Sergi Perez Contri vs Ivan Biletic BUY Ivan Biletic 13¢ $103 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,188.24 · official $1,456.01 · 384 history records