Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:59:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DA 0xda34…01a8 sports 172 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 138d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,519 (+2%) realized +$4,472 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%62W / 114L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,504per market
Trades / day24.4pace
Fees−$2,248est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$6,614now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 138d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$3,193
other 2% −$633
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +7.2% -3.0% 39% 39% -26.5%
≤30d 45 -20.2% -27.8% 33% 33% -30.8%
≤90d 117 -1.8% -11.1% 38% 37% -5.6%
all 176 +5.5% -4.6% 35% 34% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 34% -14.6%
10% -13.7% 34% -22.8%
15% ← realistic here -22.0% 34% -30.2%
20% -29.7% 32% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$2,092) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +26% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
19.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,457 vs −$1,469 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$6,614
Realized+$4,472
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses62 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$2,248
Open positions4
Markets (closed)176 / 172
History coverage138d ⚠
Avg bet$1,504
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $4,203 $4,243 +$40 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs TDK 46¢ 46¢ $1,695 $1,695 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs K27 46¢ 46¢ $665 $672 +$7 (+1%)
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 114 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC 324: Pulyaev vs. Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) Jun 17 $1,415 −$1,415 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Sinners (BO3) Jun 17 $1,407 −$1,407 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs Jun 17 $164 −$164 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9INE (BO3) Jun 17 $1,976 −$1,976 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BetBoom Team (BO3) Jun 17 $2,624 −$2,624 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs ALLINNERS (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 17 $1,196 −$1,196 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jun 17 $4,340 −$4,340 -100%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Clo Jun 17 $4,526 −$4,526 -100%
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $61 +$375 +615%
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $177 +$141 +80%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 15 $130 −$130 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,875 +$1,875 +100%
Will Legacy qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $11,668 +$5,105 +44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,221 +$2,563 +115%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,540 −$1,540 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,034 −$1,034 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,855 +$2,092 +113%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $580 +$944 +163%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,778 −$1,778 -100%
Will BIG qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $251 −$246 -98%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se Jun 09 $803 −$799 -100%
Will B8 qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $242 −$238 -98%
Will BIG qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 08 $451 −$439 -97%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,720 −$1,720 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3,462 −$3,462 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $2,786 +$1,796 +64%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2,045 +$2,229 +109%
Will Legacy qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $434 −$425 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $3,276 −$3,276 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1,175 +$1,325 +113%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $2,402 −$2,371 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $3,023 −$3,023 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $2,585 −$2,585 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 31 $3,113 +$3,250 +104%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $1,596 −$1,593 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $2,629 +$3,498 +133%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1,942 −$1,942 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $2,104 +$2,351 +112%
Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Pl May 27 $2,582 −$2,566 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $1,411 +$1,602 +114%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Fi May 24 $883 +$982 +111%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 23 $218 −$215 -98%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Walczaki (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Finals May 22 $118 −$117 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Grou May 20 $867 −$846 -98%
Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs Tricked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo May 18 $222 −$220 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 17 $2,367 +$3,219 +136%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $2,586 +$3,735 +144%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $771 −$761 -99%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $2,459 −$2,453 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 46¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 46¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 46¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 46¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 46¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 46¢ $326 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 46¢ $466 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 46¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 46¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 46¢ $46 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 46¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 46¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 46¢ $811 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 45¢ $121 10h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 45¢ $106 10h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 45¢ $53 11h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 46¢ $118 11h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 46¢ $102 11h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 48¢ $165 11h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 96¢ $190 20h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 21h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 96¢ $930 22h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1,444 22h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 96¢ $813 22h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 96¢ $55 23h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 96¢ $209 23h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 97¢ $138 23h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 97¢ $76 23h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 97¢ $292 23h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 97¢ $8 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,614.12 · official $6,650.24 (match) · 3500 history records