Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:59:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DA 0xda35…ff0e sports 631 markets active 1h ago coverage 188d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 188d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$49,753 (-6%) realized −$49,919 · open +$166
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%295W / 333L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,326per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$664now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$138
7 days+$138
14 days+$138
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$44,262
other 24% −$3,798
crypto 1% +$6,187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +33.3% +20.6% 60% 60% +9.3%
≤30d 11 +21.8% +10.2% 55% 55% -6.8%
≤90d 22 +16.2% +5.1% 55% 55% -5.9%
all 628 -4.5% -13.6% 47% 46% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 46% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 45% -22.3%
15% -29.4% 44% -29.8%
20% -36.3% 39% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$1,998) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,195 vs −$1,189 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$664
Realized−$49,919
Unrealized+$166
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses295 / 333
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions3
Markets (closed)628 / 631
History coverage188d ⚠
Avg bet$1,326
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 628 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Atlanta Dream 48¢ 92¢ $205 $396 +$191 (+93%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Marcos Giron 44¢ 57¢ $207 $269 +$61 (+30%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks Alycia Parks 55¢ 0¢ $86 $0 −$86 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche Jun 20 $98 +$113 +115%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Daria Snigur Jun 20 $198 +$97 +49%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Giles Hussey Jun 20 $98 +$199 +203%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $193 −$190 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Felix Gill vs Marco Trungelliti Jun 20 $82 −$80 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $47 −$46 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Madison Keys May 28 $130 −$127 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $99 +$78 +79%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi May 28 $311 −$307 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Claire Liu May 28 $105 +$207 +197%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $103 +$101 +98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina May 14 $592 −$587 -99%
Cordoba: Franco Roncadelli vs Nicolas Kicker May 14 $578 −$570 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev May 14 $408 +$702 +172%
Cordoba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Miguel Tobon May 14 $332 −$326 -98%
Oeiras 4: Tomas Barrios vs Emilio Nava May 14 $309 +$375 +121%
Tunis: Federico Cina vs Inaki Montes May 14 $504 +$354 +70%
Tunis: Dali Blanch vs Jay Clarke May 14 $336 +$266 +79%
Zagreb: Yannick Alexandrescou vs August Holmgren May 14 $196 +$235 +120%
Valencia: Leandro Riedi vs Miomir Kecmanovic May 14 $202 +$107 +53%
Zagreb: Luka Mikrut vs Chris Rodesch May 14 $294 −$290 -99%
Zagreb: Marco Cecchinato vs Andres Andrade May 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $1,501 −$1,501 -100%
Cap Cana: Alexander Blockx vs Mariano Navone Mar 14 $2,158 −$2,158 -100%
Will PSV win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Santiago: Thiago Monteiro vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Mar 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Hersonissos 2: Petr Nesterov vs Maximus Jones Mar 10 $39 −$39 -100%
Santiago: Franco Agamenone vs Guido Justo Mar 10 $429 −$390 -91%
Hersonissos 2: Tom Gentzsch vs Jacopo Berrettini Mar 10 $154 +$275 +178%
Set Handicap: Jovic (-1.5) vs Osorio (+1.5) Mar 10 $269 −$269 -100%
UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs. San Diego State Aztecs Mar 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets: 1H Moneyline Mar 10 $200 −$200 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Denis Shapovalov Mar 10 $327 −$327 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets Mar 10 $501 −$501 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Anna Blinkova vs Amanda Anisimova Mar 10 $306 −$306 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Gael Monfils vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Mar 10 $238 −$238 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Marton Fucsovics Mar 10 $448 −$448 -100%
Cherbourg: Jurij Rodionov vs Maxime Janvier Mar 10 $375 −$375 -100%
Cherbourg: Pavel Kotov vs Clement Chidekh Mar 10 $250 −$250 -100%
Hersonissos 2: Lorenzo Carboni vs Federico Iannaccone Mar 10 $250 −$250 -100%
Kigali 2: Joel Schwaerzler vs Stefano Napolitano Mar 10 $321 −$321 -100%
Clippers vs. Spurs Mar 07 $86 +$420 +488%
Tomas Etcheverry vs. Denis Shapovalov: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Mar 07 $50 +$36 +72%
Set Handicap: Shapovalov (-1.5) vs Etcheverry (+1.5) Mar 07 $186 +$136 +73%
BNP Paribas Open: Iva Jovic vs Camila Osorio Mar 07 $469 +$40 +9%
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets Mar 07 $418 +$51 +12%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-03-06? Mar 07 $260 −$260 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Jasmine Paolini Mar 07 $501 +$418 +84%
BNP Paribas Open: Ben Shelton vs Reilly Opelka Mar 06 $376 +$563 +150%
BNP Paribas Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Anna Kalinskaya Mar 06 $350 +$97 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom BUY Marcos Giron 44¢ $211 34m
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche SELL Luca Van Assche 93¢ $211 40m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks BUY Alycia Parks 55¢ $87 1h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 48¢ $208 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Daria Snigur SELL Daria Snigur 98¢ $295 1h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 43¢ $98 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Daria Snigur BUY Daria Snigur 65¢ $198 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Giles Hussey SELL Giles Hussey 100¢ $297 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Giles Hussey BUY Giles Hussey 31¢ $31 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Giles Hussey BUY Giles Hussey 33¢ $67 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 50¢ $134 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 64¢ $59 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Felix Gill vs Marco Trungelliti BUY Felix Gill 32¢ $82 4h
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton BUY Ben Shelton 16¢ $47 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Madison Keys BUY Antonia Ruzic 27¢ $130 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $177 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi BUY Luciano Darderi 55¢ $311 23d
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Claire Liu SELL Maria Sakkari 100¢ $312 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 55¢ $99 23d
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Claire Liu BUY Maria Sakkari 33¢ $105 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame SELL Moise Kouame 100¢ $204 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame BUY Moise Kouame 50¢ $93 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame BUY Moise Kouame 48¢ $10 23d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina BUY Iga Swiatek 72¢ $592 36d
Cordoba: Franco Roncadelli vs Nicolas Kicker BUY Nicolas Kicker 53¢ $578 36d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 100¢ $1,110 36d
Cordoba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Miguel Tobon BUY Miguel Tobon 31¢ $106 37d
Cordoba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Miguel Tobon BUY Miguel Tobon 36¢ $226 37d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 36¢ $408 37d
Tunis: Federico Cina vs Inaki Montes BUY Inaki Montes 58¢ $504 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $664.35 · official $664.40 (match) · 3500 history records