Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:55:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DA 0xda37…7aa0 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$326 (+25%) realized +$326 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$138
7 days+$214
14 days+$315
30 days+$315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$167
other 21% +$151
politics 15% $0
crypto 4% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +18.0% +6.8% 57% 43% +13.9%
≤30d 9 +26.7% +14.6% 67% 56% +17.8%
≤90d 9 +26.7% +14.6% 67% 56% +17.8%
all 9 +26.7% +14.6% 67% 56% +17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.6% 56% +17.8%
10% +3.6% 56% +6.5%
15% -6.4% 44% -3.8%
20% -15.6% 33% -13.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$2 · ×26.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×52.69 per $1 lost it wins $52.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized+$326
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage11d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 65¢ 66¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 60¢ 60¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $59 −$3 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $123 +$77 +62%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $18 −$1 -5%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $294 +$66 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $121 +$78 +64%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$2 -11%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 16 $196 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $161 +$58 +36%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $55 +$43 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $152 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $121 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $55 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 32h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 42h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $204 44h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 76¢ $80 45h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 79¢ $79 45h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 78¢ $156 45h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 46h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 57¢ $59 47h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 76¢ $77 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $121 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $196 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $220 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $98 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $98 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $55 10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.15 · official $270.15 (match) · 28 history records