Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:34:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DA 0xda38…08f1 crypto 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 504d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$352 (-8%) realized −$385 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate60%49W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$453
7 days+$326
14 days+$326
30 days+$332
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$380
sports 24% +$370
other 6% +$4
world 4% −$18
politics 2% −$16
tech 1% +$5
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -12.8% -21.1% 46% 46% +33.0%
≤30d 15 -10.1% -18.6% 53% 40% +29.6%
≤90d 15 -10.1% -18.6% 53% 40% +29.6%
all 82 -8.0% -16.8% 60% 33% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 33% -8.9%
10% -24.8% 21% -17.6%
15% -32.0% 16% -25.6%
20% -38.7% 7% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$30 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

504d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$385
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses49 / 33
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 88
History coverage504d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 0¢ 30¢ $0 $33 +$33 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +19%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $153 +$264 +172%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $50 +$8 +16%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026 Jun 21 $141 +$211 +150%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $56 +$85 +151%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $34 +$8 +24%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $77 −$75 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $23 +$2 +8%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $116 −$64 -55%
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Feb 27 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Feb 27 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $50 −$11 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Feb 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Feb 27 $126 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 16 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: DN Freecs vs Dplus KIA (BO3) Jan 16 $22 +$2 +9%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 16 $85 −$18 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 15 $76 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 7PM ET Jan 14 $46 −$11 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jan 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 13 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 13 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jan 13 $31 −$27 -86%
Lakers vs. Kings Jan 13 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jan 13 $22 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jan 13 $64 −$26 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jan 11 $134 −$133 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 11 $157 −$109 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 11 $100 +$40 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jan 11 $123 −$115 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jan 11 $50 −$32 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 11 $56 +$25 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 11 $56 +$22 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 11 $40 +$17 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 11 $50 +$26 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 11 $49 +$32 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 11 $24 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 11 $102 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jan 11 $194 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jan 11 $93 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jan 11 $91 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jan 11 $75 +$15 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 64¢ $51 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 32¢ $41 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 81¢ $59 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $50 27h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 36¢ $153 29h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 29h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 42h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026 BUY 39¢ $141 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 SELL 86¢ $141 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 33¢ $56 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 80¢ $34 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Mexico BUY 27¢ $51 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $15 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $77 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $77 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 AND BUY 41¢ $83 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 AND BUY 53¢ $152 5d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL BetBoom Team 76¢ $24 14d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL 9z 96¢ $31 14d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 69¢ $23 14d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL 9z 71¢ $23 14d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 77¢ $50 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 27? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 115d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 27? BUY Yes 61¢ $48 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.15 · official $83.15 · 209 history records