Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:21:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda39…b4aa crypto 930 markets active 8h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$494 (-8%) realized −$510 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%375W / 543L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day37.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$15
14 days−$235
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$62
world 14% −$147
other 7% −$60
weather 6% +$3
sports 5% −$60
politics 4% −$14
tech 0% −$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -38.0% -43.9% 21% 19% -21.5%
≤30d 428 -11.7% -20.1% 30% 27% -13.3%
≤90d 918 -10.5% -19.0% 41% 34% -15.1%
all 918 -10.5% -19.0% 41% 34% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 34% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 20% -23.2%
15% -33.9% 14% -30.6%
20% -40.3% 11% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$510
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses375 / 543
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions11
Markets (closed)918 / 930
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day37.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 918 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be 20+ VAR decisions overturned during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 20¢ $9 $16 +$7 (+74%)
Will there be 15+ VAR decisions overturned during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 10¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+137%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will Lionel Messi score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 62¢ $2 $5 +$4 (+247%)
Will 1+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 34¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 16¢ 14¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-15%)
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $3 $3 −$1 (-16%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in June? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in June? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +15%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -36%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$16 +160%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -58%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be 10+ VAR decisions overturned during the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $0 $0 -6%
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? Jun 15 $1 $0 -15%
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals Jun 15 $1 $0 -46%
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -16%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +136%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -92%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$3 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +92%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Canva IPO before 2027? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$2 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $23 +$6 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $6 +$3 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $21 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 22h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $1 22h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 23h
Will 1+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA BUY No 34¢ $5 27h
Will Lionel Messi score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $10 35h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 71¢ $3 37h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 38h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 38h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 38h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 98¢ $27 38h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $10 40h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 44h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 44h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 44h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 2d
Will there be 20+ VAR decisions overturned during the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 16¢ $3 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 2d
Will there be 10+ VAR decisions overturned during the 2026 FIFA World SELL No $0 2d
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 3d
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals SELL Yes $1 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 35¢ $1 3d
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 3d
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.91 · official $60.91 (match) · 3500 history records