Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:40:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda39…b8b1 crypto 156 markets active 3d ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-17%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate25%39W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$33
14 days−$45
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$96
other 2% −$10
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-47.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -24.2% -31.4% 40% 33% -23.6%
≤30d 156 -41.4% -47.0% 25% 22% -29.9%
≤90d 156 -41.4% -47.0% 25% 22% -29.9%
all 156 -41.4% -47.0% 25% 22% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.0% 22% -29.9%
10% -52.1% 19% -36.6%
15% -56.7% 12% -42.7%
20% -60.9% 12% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -70% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses39 / 117
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)156 / 156
History coverage21d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 156 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -70%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$10 +69%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -80%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$33 +395%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +77%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -35%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -62%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -65%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -52%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $0 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $0 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $7 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 437 history records