Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:30:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda3a…a3c4 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$169 (+14%) realized +$169 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$3
world 23% −$1
crypto 17% −$3
politics 11% +$168
tech 3% $0
culture 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 8 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 13 -2.7% -12.0% 15% 0% -10.0%
all 39 +25.3% +13.4% 49% 5% +4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.4% 5% +4.3%
10% +2.5% 3% -5.7%
15% -7.4% 3% -14.8%
20% -16.5% 3% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×13.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×21.33 per $1 lost it wins $21.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$169
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage450d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 91¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $43 −$1 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $41 −$1 -4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $1 $0 -33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $12 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $16 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $37 +$2 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 6? Aug 10 $30 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $149 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 01 $175 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 29 $16 +$167 +1076%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 24 $9 −$1 -15%
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13? Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
MicroStrategy purchases >10000 BTC June 3-9? Jun 09 $4 −$3 -66%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 06 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 05 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will another country be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F May 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? May 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Apr 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Indianapolis Colts? Apr 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 13 $27 +$2 +9%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 04 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $26 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on April 4? Apr 02 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $41 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 21h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $43 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $43 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $44 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $44 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $24 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $16 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $40 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $18 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $21 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $23 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $18 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $7 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $7 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $41 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $1 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $40 7d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $30 7d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 73¢ $15 7d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $42 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.55 · official $40.68 (match) · 126 history records