Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:36:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DA
0xda3d…145c
crypto · 482 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$241 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$165 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$152
Realized+$165
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses273 / 182
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions22
Markets (closed)455 / 482
History coverage245d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 22 History 455 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$44
14 days+$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+27%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 57¢ 59¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 54¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+44%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+39%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $12 +$13 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -37%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $28 +$32 +112%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +250%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +156%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +21%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $9 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +10%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 09 $181 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 03 $32 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9AM ET Jun 03 $34 +$11 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8AM ET Jun 03 $41 −$20 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 03 $11 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 03 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $4 $0 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $74 −$9 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 +$6 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 02 $28 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$5 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $21 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $205 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 02 $28 −$14 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3AM ET Jun 02 $53 −$13 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$4 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12AM ET Jun 02 $7 +$6 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 02 $7 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$3 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 66% +$142
tech 15% −$3
other 11% −$36
sports 3% +$85
economics 3% −$3
world 1% −$14
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $15 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 9h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 11h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 15h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $12 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 32h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 33h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 40h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 40h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 12¢ $3 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND W BUY 5¢ $2 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 11¢ $5 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND W BUY 22¢ $8 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 4¢ $5 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $13 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 91¢ $12 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 85¢ $7 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +13.6% +2.8% 50% 45% +1.0%
≤30d 85 +3.2% -6.7% 54% 47% -9.1%
≤90d 292 -4.8% -13.9% 57% 40% -8.9%
all 455 +0.2% -9.4% 60% 43% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 43% -7.5%
10% -18.1% 31% -16.3%
15% -26.0% 22% -24.4%
20% -33.2% 15% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.33 · official $155.17 · 1582 history records