Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:10:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda42…ba30 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$226 (-16%) realized −$230 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$252
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -15.0% -23.1% 59% 41% -28.6%
≤30d 22 -15.0% -23.1% 59% 41% -28.6%
≤90d 22 -15.0% -23.1% 59% 41% -28.6%
all 22 -15.0% -23.1% 59% 41% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 41% -28.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.4% 32% -35.4%
15% -37.2% 14% -41.7%
20% -43.3% 14% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$49 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized−$230
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)22 / 25
History coverage2d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Petja Drame vs Karine Sarkisova Karine Sarkisova 74¢ 80¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
ITF Samobor: Nicolas Jadoun vs Lilian Marmousez Lilian Marmousez 90¢ 93¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto Nick Hardt 65¢ 62¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang Jun 18 $101 −$37 -36%
ITF Tulsa: Andrew Fenty vs Victor Tosetto Jun 18 $50 +$5 +10%
ITF Irvine: Yulia Zhytelna vs Midori Castillo Meza Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais Jun 17 $151 −$150 -99%
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin Jun 17 $69 −$29 -42%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Tulsa: Jonah Braswell vs Nicolas Arseneault Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Set Handicap: Abbagnato (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$26 +52%
ITF Klosters: Dune Vaissaud vs Josephine Kunz Jun 17 $50 +$11 +23%
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata Jun 17 $64 −$10 -16%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
ITF San Gregorio: Michelle Kelly Tikhonko vs Amy Stevens Jun 17 $15 +$1 +10%
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Diana Marcinkevica Jun 17 $50 +$16 +32%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han Jun 17 $50 +$14 +27%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova Jun 17 $50 +$11 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Samobor: Nicolas Jadoun vs Lilian Marmousez BUY Lilian Marmousez 90¢ $50 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang BUY Jiaqi Wang 78¢ $50 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang BUY Varvara Panshina 75¢ $50 2h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto BUY Nick Hardt 65¢ $51 3h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Petja Drame vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Karine Sarkisova 74¢ $50 5h
ITF Tulsa: Andrew Fenty vs Victor Tosetto BUY Andrew Fenty 91¢ $50 7h
ITF Irvine: Yulia Zhytelna vs Midori Castillo Meza BUY Midori Castillo Meza 87¢ $50 8h
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Justin Boulais 86¢ $50 9h
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Justin Boulais 76¢ $50 10h
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Justin Boulais 76¢ $50 10h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto BUY Santiago De La Fuente 41¢ $51 11h
ITF Tulsa: Jonah Braswell vs Nicolas Arseneault BUY Jonah Braswell 45¢ $51 11h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Patrick Schoen 92¢ $50 15h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Vasco Leote Prata 12¢ $14 16h
ITF San Gregorio: Michelle Kelly Tikhonko vs Amy Stevens BUY Amy Stevens 91¢ $15 17h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs $11 17h
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin BUY Jakub Vrba 47¢ $19 18h
ITF Klosters: Dune Vaissaud vs Josephine Kunz BUY Dune Vaissaud 81¢ $50 18h
Set Handicap: Abbagnato (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5) BUY Zhang 65¢ $51 19h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon BUY Grigor Dimitrov 92¢ $50 19h
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin BUY Noa Vukadin 87¢ $50 19h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 58¢ $51 19h
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Diana Marcinkevica BUY Viola Turini 75¢ $50 20h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han BUY Daria Khomutsianskaya 78¢ $50 21h
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi BUY Julia Stusek 89¢ $50 21h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $51 23h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li BUY Varvara Panshina 94¢ $50 24h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Tiana Tian Deng 57¢ $51 25h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova BUY Rinko Matsuda 81¢ $50 26h
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Aoyama/Chan 57¢ $51 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.80 · official $154.14 (match) · 46 history records