Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:52:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DA
0xda44…2e5a
other · 126 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$432 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$373 · open −$57
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$823
Realized−$373
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses61 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions16
Markets (closed)110 / 126
History coverage155d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 16 History 110 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$479
14 days+$271
30 days+$681
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? Yes 33¢ 52¢ $149 $234 +$85 (+57%)
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14? No 91¢ 89¢ $181 $177 −$4 (-2%)
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? No 26¢ 48¢ $55 $101 +$46 (+84%)
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? Yes 59¢ 48¢ $62 $51 −$11 (-18%)
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $42 $45 +$3 (+7%)
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14? No 95¢ 34¢ $113 $40 −$72 (-64%)
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 73¢ $32 $30 −$1 (-4%)
Critical Discord Incident by June 30? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $19 $29 +$10 (+50%)
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026? No 77¢ 100¢ $19 $24 +$6 (+30%)
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 89¢ 88¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Critical Discord Incident by June 30? No 73¢ 85¢ $13 $16 +$2 (+16%)
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026? No 86¢ 79¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-8%)
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? Yes 62¢ 58¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in June 2026? No 77¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14? No 94¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14? No 61¢ 1¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $3 $0 +6%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $488 +$136 +28%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,126 +$357 +32%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $7 +$1 +9%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $12 +$2 +17%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $13 +$3 +23%
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 08 $77 −$24 -31%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 05 $25 +$9 +34%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 05 $23 +$7 +29%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $237 −$202 -86%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 02 $45 +$22 +48%
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026? Jun 02 $107 +$174 +163%
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026? Jun 02 $4 +$2 +43%
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in May 2026? Jun 02 $115 +$19 +17%
Critical Discord Incident by May 31? Jun 01 $142 +$7 +5%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs Jun 01 $183 −$183 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $53 −$53 -100%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 25 $22 +$2 +7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner May 24 $104 +$246 +238%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $296 +$74 +25%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner May 22 $202 +$88 +44%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $531 +$94 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 3 Winner May 03 $117 +$23 +20%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner May 03 $169 +$31 +18%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $225 +$75 +33%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026? Apr 29 $270 +$130 +48%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Apr 29 $601 +$179 +30%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026? Apr 13 $235 −$235 -100%
Critical Discord Incident by March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $19 +$80 +412%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? Mar 18 $447 −$447 -100%
Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the Mar 14 $53 +$147 +277%
Will "DtMF - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Mar 10 $161 +$599 +372%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Passion UA - Map 2 Winner Mar 01 $200 −$83 -41%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 10 be greater tha Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 10 be between 2,2 Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 10 be less than 1 Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 10 be between 2,0 Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 10 be between 1,6 Mar 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP? Mar 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP? Mar 01 $17 +$1 +8%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP? Mar 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Mar 01 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28? Mar 01 $186 −$186 -100%
Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners t Mar 01 $211 −$142 -68%
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025? Mar 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025? Mar 01 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 8 be greater than Mar 01 $216 −$216 -100%
Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Mar 01 $861 −$167 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% −$968
sports 21% −$770
politics 17% +$65
world 5% −$60
tech 4% +$79
culture 3% +$875
economics 1% +$348
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 39m
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $13 39m
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 1h
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 1h
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 3h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 92¢ $8 7h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 92¢ $25 8h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 92¢ $25 9h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 92¢ $25 12h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 92¢ $18 14h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 92¢ $25 15h
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 31h
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $23 32h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 90¢ $25 33h
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 33h
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid BUY Yes 30¢ $20 34h
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $21 34h
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid BUY Yes 30¢ $12 35h
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 35h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 90¢ $9 36h
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid BUY Yes 30¢ $3 36h
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 36h
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid BUY Yes 30¢ $7 2d
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? BUY No 27¢ $18 2d
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? BUY No 26¢ $38 2d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 87¢ $21 2d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 95¢ $113 3d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 4d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $20 4d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $45 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.0% -7.7% 78% 56% +15.2%
≤30d 22 +16.0% +4.9% 77% 59% +9.2%
≤90d 32 +31.5% +19.0% 78% 66% +2.0%
all 110 +2.0% -7.7% 55% 39% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 39% -10.6%
10% -16.5% 30% -19.1%
15% -24.6% 22% -27.0%
20% -32.0% 16% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $823.47 · official $823.47 (match) · 717 history records