Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:25:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda47…c2e9 sports 664 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$236 (-1%) realized −$250 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%345W / 315L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day22.8pace
Fees−$204est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$485
7 days+$468
14 days+$430
30 days+$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$374
other 9% +$735
crypto 1% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +45.7% +31.9% 58% 58% +32.3%
≤30d 124 +10.3% -0.2% 63% 63% +2.0%
≤90d 660 -8.4% -17.1% 52% 48% -8.7%
all 660 -8.4% -17.1% 52% 48% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 48% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 35% -17.5%
15% -32.3% 27% -25.4%
20% -38.9% 20% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$250
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses345 / 315
Est. fees paid−$204
Open positions2
Markets (closed)660 / 664
History coverage78d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 660 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 34¢ 42¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+25%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Grind Back 86¢ 100¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $14 +$374 +2600%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$121 +786%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $182 +$104 +57%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $92 +$208 +226%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $8 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $8 +$1 +14%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $23 +$4 +16%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $8 +$1 +17%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $8 +$1 +12%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $8 +$1 +17%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $8 +$1 +18%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $8 +$1 +14%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $15 +$2 +14%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $8 +$1 +14%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $8 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $8 +$1 +14%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $8 +$1 +13%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $8 +$1 +12%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $8 +$1 +18%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $8 +$1 +17%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 +$1 +18%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 15 $8 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 +$1 +12%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $8 +$1 +13%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$1 +12%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 13 $23 −$22 -100%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $8 +$1 +17%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $8 +$1 +14%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $8 +$1 +13%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $8 +$1 +16%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $8 +$1 +13%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $15 −$15 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $23 +$9 +41%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $8 −$7 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $10 +$2 +20%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 86¢ $8 32m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $61 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 6h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 22¢ $20 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? AND Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 BUY 2¢ $3 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 35¢ $71 13h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 84¢ $8 16h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 34¢ $51 21h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 14¢ $41 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 18¢ $41 21h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $81 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $102 21h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner BUY Carstensz 87¢ $8 23h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 85¢ $8 29h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 89¢ $8 29h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 84¢ $8 29h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 85¢ $8 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.22 · official $71.22 (match) · 2344 history records