Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:34:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DA 0xda49…2d94 crypto 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$9 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%82W / 1L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$8
world 0% $0
other 0% −$3
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +2.6% -7.1% 100% 17% -9.3%
≤90d 26 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 4% -9.4%
all 83 -0.5% -10.0% 99% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×8.94 per $1 lost it wins $8.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses82 / 1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)83 / 88
History coverage248d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $88 $88 +$0 (+0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 88¢ 37¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 15? Jun 17 $107 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? Jun 09 $2 $0 +13%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? Jun 09 $3 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 25? Jun 09 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? May 24 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90,000 on May 13? May 22 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? May 12 $106 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April? May 04 $3 $0 +1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 04 $4 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? May 04 $4 $0 +5%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 04 $6 $0 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30? May 04 $7 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on April 30? May 04 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $75 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on April 24? Apr 27 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 22? Apr 23 $74 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 10 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 6? Apr 07 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 3? Apr 04 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 1? Apr 03 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 29 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 20 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 14? Mar 14 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 12? Mar 13 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 8? Mar 11 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on March 7? Mar 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 06 $105 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Mar 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Mar 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 23? Feb 24 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 17? Feb 19 $94 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 15? Feb 15 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 13? Feb 13 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on February 11? Feb 11 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 8? Feb 09 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 2? Feb 05 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 31 Feb 01 $91 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $88 1h
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY No 99¢ $3 9d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $7 9d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 9d
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY No 99¢ $3 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $109 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $107 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $7 32d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $99 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $104 37d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? BUY No 98¢ $3 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90,000 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $102 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $106 52d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? BUY No 88¢ $2 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on April 30? BUY No 100¢ $77 60d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $75 62d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on April 24? BUY No 100¢ $77 66d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $74 68d
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $7 70d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? BUY No 95¢ $4 70d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April? BUY No 99¢ $3 70d
Will Solana reach $160 in April? BUY No 99¢ $4 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $91 74d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $2 78d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $4 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $97 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $96 83d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? BUY No 96¢ $6 85d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $104 86d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $102 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.39 · official $108.39 (match) · 172 history records