Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:48:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DA 0xda49…db09 other 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$774 (+1%) realized +$775 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%8W / 85L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$1,556per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1,118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$10
14 days−$15
30 days−$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$74
politics 39% −$80
sports 5% +$888
tech 3% −$5
economics 3% −$3
world 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$3
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 27 -3.8% -13.0% 7% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 93 +1.3% -8.4% 9% 6% -9.1%
all 93 +1.3% -8.4% 9% 6% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 6% -9.1%
10% -17.1% 6% -17.8%
15% -25.1% 6% -25.7%
20% -32.5% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,678) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$4 · ×31.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.0 per $1 lost it wins $3.0
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$1,118
Realized+$775
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses8 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage84d
Avg bet$1,556
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $858 $857 −$1 (-0%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $261 $261 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $208 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $981 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,428 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,501 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,537 −$4 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $1,453 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,452 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,066 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $2,897 −$3 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $4,966 −$9 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $1,195 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 04 $416 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 04 $815 +$2 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,942 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $1,160 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,175 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $5,168 −$5 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $999 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $2,468 −$4 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $2,430 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $3,541 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,022 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,032 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 23 $1,140 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,066 −$2 -0%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? May 21 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $2,864 −$3 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $2,541 −$3 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 19 $1,227 −$1 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 19 $64 +$82 +129%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $3,408 −$4 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $3,052 −$4 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,706 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $1,702 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $1,735 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $1,717 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 16 $3,159 −$4 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $2,985 −$4 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $3,291 −$5 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $1,514 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $3,217 −$5 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $1,642 −$2 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $1,678 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $1,577 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $1,645 −$2 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $2,701 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $1,628 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 11 $1,633 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $261 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $207 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $208 5h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $979 24h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $981 26h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $858 47h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,427 4d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,428 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,499 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,501 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,471 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,473 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,379 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,381 7d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,451 7d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,453 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,450 12d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,452 12d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $963 12d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $964 12d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,065 13d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,066 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,558 14d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,560 14d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,597 14d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,601 14d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,193 14d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,195 15d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $863 18d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $864 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,118.37 · official $1,118.37 (match) · 275 history records