Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:21:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

DA 0xda4a…cdfa crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$104 (-19%) realized −$105 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip

Net edge-54%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate27%4W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$35per market

Trades / day36.0pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit94%portable

Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)-45.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	-40.0%	-45.7%	27%	27%	-31.0%
≤30d	15	-40.0%	-45.7%	27%	27%	-31.0%
≤90d	15	-40.0%	-45.7%	27%	27%	-31.0%
all	15	-40.0%	-45.7%	27%	27%	-31.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover36.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-45.7%	27%	-31.0%
10% ← realistic here	-50.9%	27%	-37.6%
15%	-55.6%	20%	-43.7%
20%	-60.0%	13%	-49.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 76% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -40% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -24% → late -54% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$24 vs −$18 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.48 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$68

Realized−$105

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)27%

Wins / losses4 / 11

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)15 / 16

History coverage1d

Avg bet$35

Trades / day36.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	No	40¢	40¢	$67	$68	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Jun 19	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Jun 19	$39	−$5	-13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Jun 19	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Jun 19	$26	+$14	+55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Jun 19	$36	+$15	+42%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala	Jun 19	$169	−$47	-28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Jun 19	$26	−$25	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Jun 19	$26	−$25	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Jun 19	$27	+$9	+33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Jun 19	$27	−$26	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Jun 19	$26	+$58	+221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Jun 19	$11	−$1	-10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Jun 19	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Jun 19	$16	−$15	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Jun 19	$4	−$4	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	40¢	$68	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$1	56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	BUY Down	8¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	SELL Up	92¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	SELL Up	92¢	$56	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$13	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	BUY Down	17¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$36	1h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala	SELL Alexandra Eala	57¢	$1	1h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala	SELL Elina Svitolina	42¢	$39	1h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala	BUY Alexandra Eala	57¢	$1	1h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala	BUY Elina Svitolina	45¢	$1	1h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala	BUY Elina Svitolina	71¢	$66	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	BUY Down	27¢	$26	1h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala	SELL Elina Svitolina	41¢	$82	1h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala	BUY Elina Svitolina	49¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	SELL Down	61¢	$85	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	BUY Down	17¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	SELL Up	82¢	$9	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.64 · official $67.64 (match) · 41 history records